With the filing deadline for aldermanic candidates fast approaching, we are reminded that Chicagoans have the delight of a municipal election to look forward to in that depressing, holiday-less part of the year in January, February and March. These municipals, which will take place in February, will be the most important since 1991; but the outcome is more or less a foregone conclusion.
With the highly convenient excuse of a new Democratic majority that bestows on them relevance (Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. even compared his new position to when North Side congressman Dan Rostenkowski was chairman of Ways & Means; Jackson sits on Appropriations) Mayor Daley's two most potent potential challengers, Luis Gutierrez and Jackson Jr., both jointly announced they would not be running against Daley. Jackson, eyeing 2011, made clear that he was confident that if he had run he would have won. And, with that eye on 2011, he will look to recruit candidates for alderman and try to lure independent aldermen into a bloc under his political organization's banner.
The movement to bring real democracy to the Chicago City Council will begin with this election — those groups that had talked tough about taking on the Council and the mayor have come to see that perhaps a more measured approach is appropriate; whatever ground they gain this time around can be used to create a new power center in the city government. That power center could then move the policy and message that a slate of reform candidates could use in 2011 to take the Council as well as the Fifth Floor. Undoubtedly, newly elected aldermen not loyal to the Mayor will look to force votes that could compromise the reelection of some of the more endangered Democratic Regulars on the Council.
This week, let's begin the process of looking at the ward races that will likely be competitive.
Starting in the 50th Ward — West Rogers Park — Berny Stone faces a number of challengers for the seat he's held longer than almost anyone else in Chicago's history. That's more impressive when you start to think about the caliber (and style) of incumbents in Chicago.
The 50th Ward is peculiar because although it is considered a "white-majority" ward, it is hardly that. The 50th Ward has high concentrations of "ethnic" Jews, South Americans, Southeast Asians, Assyrians and Arabs. Stone is himself Jewish, one of three Jewish members of the Council. Despite his freakishly long tenure in the Council, Stone has a limited Get-Out-the-Vote operation and his age itself will likely be a factor if he has to campaign vigorously against his opponents. If he is forced into a run-off in April, his age will become a real factor.
Of his opponents — Salman Aftab, Naisy Dolar and Greg Brewer — Dolar has been getting the most buzz, although Brewer also has deep roots in the community and his key issue — over-development — is one that is near and dear to the hearts of most West Rogers residents. Salman Aftab has come after Stone the hardest thus far, calling him a "warlord."
That's a little hard to swallow if you've ever seen Stone doze during a Zoning Committee hearing.
Dolar, who is Filipino, would likely be the biggest beneficiary of the crowded field. The question that faces all three challengers is this: can they avoid nipping at each other so that whoever faces Stone in a run-off can count on the support of their opponents and their followers?
Anthony / November 30, 2006 5:50 PM
Without a competitive Mayoral race to lift the turnout rate, I wouldn't put my money on this race going to a run-off. Nor do I put much stock in the fact that many incumbents will be defeated. There may be a few heated races but I see a vast majority of the alderman returning.